Showing posts with label Andrew Lavan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andrew Lavan. Show all posts

Sunday, March 31, 2013

Examining the Career of Johan Santana

March 28th, 2013, likely marked the end of an era for the Mets. With the announcement of Johan Santana having a possible tear in his anterior capsule in his left shoulder, the same injury he had at the end of the 2010 season which required him to miss the entire 2011 season.

Johan Santana came to New York with much fan-fare in a sign & trade deal that saw then top prospects Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra, in exchange for Santana signing a 6 year $137.5 million contract, the richest for a pitcher in baseball history at the time. Out of these four players, only Gomez has shown any sort of consistant success in the majors. After throwing a perfect game last season, Humber's season took a drastic turn for the worse, and Mulvey, who pitched not even a full season in the majors (he last pitched for Arizona in 2010) before retiring as a Met in May of last year. But injuries marred what was supposed to be a reign of dominance by Santana.

His 2008 season Santana nearly won the NL Cy Young Award placing third in voting, and kept the Mets playoff hopes alive (at least for one more day) by pitching a spectacular three hit complete game shutout against the Marlins in Game 161. It was later revealed that Santana had pitched the game on a torn meniscus, thus making the performance all the more spectacular. 

Santana's 2009 season was a bit off compared to 2008. In 2009 Santana came out hot, in his first 10 starts he was 7-2, and had a 1.72 ERA, but in his final 15 starts he went 6-7 and had a 4.02 ERA to finish with a 13-9 record and 3.13 ERA in 166 innings pitched, shut down in late August to remove bone chips from his elbow.

The 2010 season does not stand out as memorable on the surface but it has proven to be vastly underrated. To drive home the point, outside of record, innings pitched, and strikeouts, Santana's season was better than his crosstown ace counterpart in CC Sabathia, who placed third in AL Cy Young voting that season. In 200 innings pitched, Santana had a 11-9 record, but a 2.98 ERA, a WHIP of 1.18, and 144 strikeouts. But once again, Santana's season was cut short due to injury, this time a torn anterior capsule in his left throwing shoulder. This injury kept him out for the entire 2011 season as well.

2012 marked a new beginning for Johan. Santana came back with a vengeance, posting a 2.75 ERA and along with eventual NL Cy Young winner, R.A. Dickey made a potent 1-2 punch. On June 1st, it finally happened. That night, Johan Santana threw not only his first career no-hitter, but also the first no-hitter in New York Mets history. His next start, Santana was rocked by the New York Yankees, going five innings and allowing six runs. But after that he seemed to settle down and begin getting his feet back under him, especially after throwing 8 shutout innings against the Dodgers. But his next start, Chicago Cubs outfielder stepped on Santana's ankle and it all went downhill from there failing to make it past the 5th inning while allowing six or more runs in each of his five starts after. 

Santana is a very polarizing figure for some Mets fans but he still remains one of the most popular and better pitchers in Mets franchise history. Was he worth the contract that he received? In short, no. But would I do that trade again? In a New York minute. 
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Friday, January 11, 2013

Mike Piazza Not elected to the Hall of Fame

On January 9th of this year, the class of 2013 was announced to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, and for the first time since 1996, no player was elected. Some of the players on the list include, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGuire, Jack Morris, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, and former Met Mike Piazza. Back in 2008, after Piazza announced his retirement, our very own Mike Peters wrote an article stating that Piazza should be put in to the Hall. However Piazza fell well short of the 75% needed to gain entry with 57.8% of the vote, 93 votes short.

It appears that the main reason why Piazza was not elected is the suspicion of his steroid use. Unlike Bonds, McGuire, Sosa, and Clemens, there has been no concrete evidence ever linking Piazza to performance enhancing drugs. Piazza was not named by Jose Canseco, nor was his name listed in the Mitchell Report. The closest link between Piazza and steroids was the rumor of back acne. Piazza's numbers alone should have warranted election to the Hall of Fame, with 396 homeruns as a catcher out of 427, 1335 career RBI's, a .306 career batting average, .377 on base percentage, and .545 slugging percentage. Piazza beats out Johnny Bench, who is considered by many to be the greatest catcher ever, in every category but RBI's, in two seasons less than Bench. However, many writers simply have stated that they wish to see what Piazza's book (which comes out in February) has to say about his potential usage of steroids.


If there is no new revelations about Piazza and potential steroids in between now and next year's vote, then there should be no argument that Piazza should be voted in as a Hall of Famer. Thus leaving the only argument whether or not he goes in as a Dodger, or as a Met.

UPDATE:
For the second year in a row Piazza was not elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, receiving 62.2% of the vote. Read More...

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Saturday, November 24, 2012

My 2012-2013 Mets Offseason Wishlist

This past season was truly a historic one with Johan Santana throwing the first no-hitter in Mets franchise history, and R.A. Dickey winning the National League Cy Young Award. There were some other bright-spots this past season, like David Wright returning to form after struggling since the opening of Citi Field in 2009, the blazing debut of pitching prospect Matt Harvey, the resurgent second half for Ike Davis, Jon Niese's successful first complete season.

There were also many spots where the Mets had trouble thus leaving voids needing to be filled. The bullpen once again was about as leaky as a Swiss Cheese sandwich. After a horrible start to his season, Frank Francisco seemed to have righted the ship until injury struck. After his return Francisco reverted back to the level of performance he opened the season with until ultimately being shut down in mid-September. The bench was a bright spot for the first half of the season but with the ineffective play of the starting outfield, the bench became worn out.

This off-season there are three things that are necessary to improve this team.

Priority #1: Re-sign Wright & Dickey
R.A. Dickey going for win #20
With two of the Mets biggest stars contracts about to expire (both had options picked up at the end of the season) it is a priority that both  David Wright and R.A. Dickey receive extensions of their contracts, Dickey more than Wright. Many have argued that Dickey should be traded for prospects to help further rebuild the farm system left depleted by Omar Minaya, but despite everything that Dickey has done for this team, he is one of the few players that has more value to the Mets than he does for anyone else. What other team out there would be willing to give up a top pitching prospect for a 38 year old pitcher? Granted this pitcher is now the reigning NL Cy Young winner but in reality the chances of receiving a bounty are slim to none.

Wright is also a player of tremendous value but that value isn't an exclusive feature to the Mets organization. With top hitting prospect Wilmer Flores waiting in the wings, Wright is potentially expendable. While Flores is nowhere near as fleet of foot nor good defensively as Wright, Flores has the potential to fill in for the offensive void that would be left by Wright if he were traded. I do not wish this to happen and I want both players to stay. I believe that would be the best thing for the fans and the organization going forward.
(It should be noted that both Wright and Dickey have reportedly received contract offers from the Mets of 6 years $100 million and 2 years $27 million with a mutual option respectively)

Priority #2: Fix the outfield
Grady Sizemore back in 2009
Due to the release of Jason Bay and ineffective play of Andres Torres and Lucas Duda, the outfield is now completely barren. Duda is likely to stay but Torres may now be a player off the bench depending on who the Mets sign. Prior to the completion of the postseason I had suggested the signing of Delmon Young, though with his successful play in the postseason Young has likely priced himself outside of the Mets range. It looks again unfortunately that the team will be bargain basement shopping. That unfortunately means no BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton (who despite everything he's done on the field I wouldn't touch with a 10 pole). That however does not rule out a big piece coming in via trade (read Justin Upton [BJ's younger brother]). That option seems unlikely though given the current financial situation. My suggestion would be to look at Grady Sizemore. Having not played all of last season and not having played a full season since 2008 due to injury he likely fits the bill of what the Mets would be looking for. When healthy Sizemore can be a good addition to the team, unfortunately that has not been the case since the 2009 season. The other spots can starting spot will likely be fought out between prospect Matt Den Dekker, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who after a strong start to the 2012 season hit the rookie wall and hit it hard, eventually being sent back down to AAA Buffalo in favor of Matt Harvey.

Priority #3: Rebuild the Bullpen 
Broxton pitching for Cincinatti
The bullpen once again proved to be the undoing of the Mets season in 2012. The hot and cold mentality of Bobby Parnell and Jon Rauch combined with the ineffective performance of Frank Francisco and Ramon Ramirez along with the season ending injury to the lone consistent pitcher in Tim Byrdak destroyed any chances of playoff contention for the Mets. However with the infusion of prospects Elvin Ramirez, Josh Edgin and Robert Carson plus the possible additions of either Jenrry Mejia or Jeurys Familia should help sure up a weak spot last season. One player who I personally believe would be a benefit to the back end of the bullpen is Jonathan Broxton. After receiving a one year contract last year and some success splitting time between Kansas City and Cincinnati Broxton should receive a similar type contract this offseason.

While the Mets unfortunately likely won't be in the hunt for a playoff spot look for the team to be much improved from last season. Read More...

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Friday, November 23, 2012

Fear The Knuckler

R.A. Dickey accomplished what every pitcher dreams about by winning the 2012 National League Cy Young Award, making him the first knuckleballer to win the prestigious award. While the Mets season fell off the rails, Dickey's season was nothing short of amazin'.

When the Mets signed Dickey in the 2009 offseason, he was nothing but an after thought (to quote our very own king of sarcasm, Matt Kaufman, "R.A. Dickey= CHAMPIONSHIP!"). Since then he has been anything but. Dickey was signed on a minor league invite to Spring Training for the 2010 season and was the first player cut coming into camp. On April 29th, while pitching for Buffalo, Dickey allowed a leadoff single to start off the game, then proceeded to retire the next 27 batters in consecutive order. This caught the attention of the Mets front office and on May 19th, Dickey's contract was purchased from Buffalo and he made his Mets debut against Washington that same evening pitching.

Once considered to be a top pitching prospect, Dickey spent most of his career as a journeyman; spending time in Texas, Minnesota, and Seattle. After his May 19th call-up, Dickey hasn't seen the minors since. Dickey provided a shot in the arm to the Mets fanbase becoming a beloved figure, even the subject of local memorabilia.

This season was one for the ages, for Dickey. He was named to the All-Star team for the first time in his career, became a best selling author, subject of a critically acclaimed documentary, and now can add Cy Young winner to what has become quite an extensive resume. This not only legitimizes him, but also legitimize the knuckleball whom many have said is a circus pitch. So to the few doubters left, it is time to fear the knuckler. Read More...

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Friday, June 1, 2012

Tonight Boss

#NotTonightBoss- @MetsWFAN (Chris Madjkowski)

Those words were tweeted out by the Mets radio producer for the past 3 1/2 seasons. But tonight, June 1st, 2012, that all came to an end. For the first 8,019 games in the history of the New York Mets, the team had never thrown a no hitter. On 8,020 the streak finally came to end with Johan Santana throwing the first no-hitter in team history.


This is especially meaningful considering the man who threw it. Coming off major shoulder surgery, who would have even imagined Johan throwing another pitch in the major leagues, let alone a no-hitter. The torn labrum has ruined the careers of many once great pitchers so him reaching this point only icing on the cake. Before the game manager Terry Collins told the media that Johan would be on a 115 pitch count. At 95 pitches at the end of 6 with his pitch count only rising, there was a lot of doubt among the announcers and fans and players alike wondering if Terry would allow Johan to finish this game. With 107 pitches heading into the 8th inning there was a serious debate raging among fans about whether or not to take him out. Under any normal circumstance there wouldn't be any question but due to the shoulder surgery it would have been understandable. With a walk in the 8th inning, Terry did come out with many fans thinking that this would be the end. But in the end history was made.

This game wasn't without it's controversy. In the 6th inning, Carlos Beltran in his return to Flushing since being traded, hit a ball that was called foul but upon further review appeared to hit the chalk (and thus a fair ball). The call was argued but (obviously) to no avail.

Also continuing the tradition in no-hitters, Mike Baxter made a spectacular running catch in the 7th inning, ramming into the wall (and subsequently leaving the game) to preserve the historic occassion

So enjoy it Met fans. The curse is over. We have a no-hitter. Hopefully it won't take 50 more years for the next one to come.

With that there is only one thing to say. TONIGHT BOSS! LGM



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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

The Ike Davis Problem

After looking like one of the up-and-coming young sluggers in his first major league season in 2010, Ike Davis' 2012 appears to be the exact opposite.But what is even more perplexing is the cause. Is it the Valley Fever diagnosis finally taking it's toll? Or could it be due to Ike missing almost all of last year due to an injured ankle. There is no easy solution to this problem. Do you send him down to the minors and let him work out his problems there? Or do you continue to let him play in the majors where he has struggled all season?


Hitting a measly .162 with an on base percentage of .219 and slugging barely over .300 in 135 at bats, Davis has become the equivalent of an automatic out. With runners in scoring position he is doing even worse (which is hard to imagine), hitting at a .155 clip, a .210 on base percentage and slugging an appalling .293 Ike simply looks like a shell of his former self. If  Davis was demoted to Buffalo, it wouldn't be the first time that an established player has been sent down to AAA. The Braves sent Jair Jurrjens down earlier in the year (where he still is currently), and back in 2001 the Mets sent down pitcher Steve Trachsel who before his demotion had an ERA near 9. After he averaged an ERA in the 3.50's. The main reason why one would be against this move would be because it would possibly damage Davis' psyche. At this point with the team still surprisingly in contention, the move that is best for the team is the one that needs to be made. I personally believe that sending Ike down would be the best of both worlds. It would allow Ike to rediscover the swing that made him a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate and would allow the Mets to take what has become a major hole in the middle of the lineup.

Ike is a key member of the future, and sending him down should allow him to regain the form that made him such a dangerous and valuable member of this team in the first place. Read More...

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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Reyes Returns

On a cold damp Tuesday night, the Miami Marlins made their debut at Citi Field with former Met Benedict Arnold Jose Reyes in tow. But what was supposed to be a homecoming was largely overshadowed by what quickly turned into a pitchers duel between two aces.

After the shortest outing of his career last Tuesday against Atlanta, Johan looked to return to signature form against the Marlins, and return to form he did. After a nice play by Kirk Nieuwenhuis to rob Reyes of an extra-base hit, Santana settled down. But Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson seemed equal to the task. Both pitchers went 6 2/3 innings, Johan throwing 105 pitches (67 for strikes). But runs were scarce to come by. It wasn't until the 7th inning that either team scored a run.

In the top of the 7th after not allowing a hit since Omar Infante's single as the second batter of the game, Mike Giancarlo Stanton singled with 2 outs. That was then followed by a double by noted Met killer Gabby Sanchez and a bad relay throw which allowed Stanton to score, putting the Mets in a 1-0 hole and knocking Santana out of the game. The bottom of the inning was better for the Mets, walking the bases loaded for Josh Thole who also drew a bases loaded walk, tying the game.

After a Nieuwenhuis single, Ruben Tejada failed to lay down a bunt (leaving him hitless on the night). Daniel Murphy followed with a single that advanced Kirk to 3rd with only one out. David Wright proceeded to strikeout looking on three pitches, when Lucas Duda, who has been in a slump to start off the season, hit an infield single off the pitcher which allowed Nieuwenhuis to score what proved to be the game winning run.

Notes:
Jose Reyes went 0-4 in his return to New York. His first AB was greeted with a mixed reaction of cheers and boos as with his video tribute.

Jason Bay was placed on the 15-Day disabled list with a fractured rib, which is not thought to be serious (we'll see how that plays out).

Mike Pelfrey was also put on the 15-Day DL. Unlike Bay, it appears that Pelfrey's injury is very serious. The early diagnosis is a partial tear of his ulner collateral ligament in his elbow, which if true, will require Tommy John surgery, thus ending his season and possibly even his Mets career. Read More...

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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Mets 2012 Season Preview

After a 2011 season that showed signs of life but ultimately crashed and burned the 2012 season for the New York Mets does not appear to be any better. In fact with the loss of Jose Reyes and a questionable bullpen, it may even be worse. There were bright spots for this team, but the many of the key players did not play up to their potential. The rotation was a bright spot last season with the continued success of R.A. Dickey, the first half success of Dillon Gee, the surprise of Chris Cappuano, and the development of John Niese.


Starting Lineup
The starting lineup when healthy should look something like this
Andres Torres (CF)
Daniel Murphy (2B)
David Wright (3B)
Ike Davis (1B)
Jason Bay (LF)
Lucas Duda (RF)
Josh Thole (C)
Ruben Tejada (SS)

Torres was acquired in a trade that sent away Angel Pagan to San Francisco for both Torres and reliever Ramon Ramirez. After a decent 2009 and 2010 season where it appeared that Torres was becoming an decent  everyday player, he fell off dramatically in 2011, hitting just .221 with just 4 home runs and 19 RBI's along with  a .312 on base percentage, and a .330 slugging.

Best Case Scenario: Torres is able to return to form and be a serviceable player in the line up
Worst Case Scenario: Torres' decline continues and is eventually replaced in the every-day lineup.
My Prediction: Torres struggles early on which leads to a platoon with him and Scott Hairston but production picks up as the season goes on.

Murphy had a career year last year, hitting .320 with an obp of .363 and a slugging of .448 last year. Before he injured his knee Murphy was 5th in the National League batting race behind the likes of Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, and Jose Reyes.  His defense still leaves something to be desired and the switch to a new position at second base is not a pleasant thought. Though he has made some nice plays in the field.

Best Case Scenario: Murphy continues to hit at a high level and is able to perform up to his potential without any recoil from his knee.
Worst Case Scenario: Murphy takes a big step back, struggles to be consistent and is a defensive liability due to lack of offense.ea
My Prediction: While he does take somewhat of a step back (I don't think he'll hit .320), he will still be a very good hitter who gets on base. I believe he will hit somewhere in the .280-.290 range with a slight increase in his power numbers.

David Wright has been on a decline in the three seasons since the opening of Citi Field. And coming off an injury plagued season, Wright is looking to prove that he still is the player that he has shown he could be. The changing of the dimensions should help improve his offensive game but we will have to wait and see what happens.

Best Case Scenario: Wright returns to form, cutting down on the strikeout rate that has risen since 2009, and is able to return to the 30-115 with .300+ batting average and .400 on base %.
Worst Case Scenario: The slide continues for Wright. He proves that he no longer is the player that we once thought he was. His option is declined and is let go of at the end of the season, thus officially ending the Wright/Reyes era.
My Prediction: The new dimensions do help Wright return close to form. While he doesn't hit 30 homers like he once did, he does cut down on the strikeouts and raises his HR total to 25 with 120 RBI's

Coming off essentially a full season missed due to an ankle injury, Ike Davis looks to prove that he can stay healthy for a full season. In his rookie year, Davis hit .264 with 19 HR's and 71 RBI's with a .351 on base, and a .440 slugging percentage. In his very limited time before he got hurt, Ike hit .302  with a .383 OB% along with .543 slugging.

Best Case Scenario: Ike doesn't miss a beat, his power numbers increase hitting close to 25 HR and over 100 RBI's and is named an All-Star reserve.
Worst Case Scenario: The Valley Fever diagnosis finally kicks in and Ike is lost for the entire season, making fans worry if he will ever be the same
My Prediction: Ike returns to normal and has a very productive season, is in the running for the First Base All-Star spot in the National League, and is chosen as a reserve, his first All-Star appearance.

Jason Bay has been a complete and utter bust in his two seasons with the Mets. He has yet to play a full season playing in a total of 218 games, hitting .251 with 18 HR's 104 RBI's during time here. I have a theory why he struggled last year. Like Wright, it appears to be a make or break year for Jason, with talk floating around that he may possibly be platooned or even released if he does not perform.

Best Case Scenario: Bay finally becomes the player that the Mets hoped he was. He is able to remain a relatively healthy, productive member of the lineup.
Worst Case Scenario: Jason's struggles continue to follow him throughout the season until he is released.
My Prediction: Bay returns to form. While he "sexy numbers" (my term meaning HR's and RBI's) still leave something to be desired, his average returns to around .280-.285 and his on base percentage climbs up to near .400

Lucas Duda got off to a horrible start last season. Filling in for an injured Jason Bay, Duda hit a measly .118 with only two hits in the entire month of April. But after his recall from the minors The Dude went on a tear for the rest of the season, hitting .302 with 10 HR's and 49 RBI's from mid-June on, proving to be a valuable asset on offense.

Best Case Scenario: Duda continues to prove that he is a valuable offensive piece and takes big advantage of the change in dimensions.
Worst Case Scenario: Last year proves to be a fluke, Duda struggles this season, and leaves a big hole in the lineup.
My Prediction: Lucas becomes a key player in the lineup and becomes a vital part of the team, hitting 25 HR's, 110 RBI and a .290 batting average.

From just the good old fashioned eye test, it looked as though Josh Thole had a horrible year both on the field and at the plate. And while the former is semi-true, the latter certainly is not. Hitting a decent .270 with an on base percentage of .345, his "sexy numbers" left more to be desired hitting only 3 home-runs and 40 RBI's.


Best Case Scenario: Thole's upward trend continues on both sides of the plate. His offensive numbers rise slightly due to the shortened dimensions and becomes a better defensive catcher playing in more games.
Worst Case Scenario: Josh regresses, and with no suitable replacement in either free agency or in the farm system, Mets are forced to ride out the storm with essentially seven men in the lineup.
My Prediction: Thole's game steadily increases as the season progresses. He doesn't become the offensive threat that many believe him to be but he does become a viable option in key situations.

2011 proved to be a standout year for Ruben Tejada. But with Jose Reyes "taking his talents to South Beach" Tejada must now fill the void left by the All-Star shortstop. Tejada does appear up to the task. A good bat that only got better as the season went on, and a glove on par with Reyes'. The question remains though can he keep up his production of the course of a grueling 162 game schedule.


Best Case Scenario: Jose who? Tejada has a breakout year and makes many Met fans the man he took over short-stop for.
Worst Case Scenario: Tejada falters. Fans start calling for his head since he is not the man who he is replacing.
My Prediction: Tejada does have a breakout year. While not on the level of Jose Reyes, Ruben has an excellent year and is eventually moved up to the leadoff spot.



Starting Rotation
The pitching rotation when at full strength will likely look similar to this:
Johan Santana
R.A. Dickey
Jon Niese
Mike Pelfrey
Dillon Gee

Johan Santana is coming off a shoulder injury which not many have successfully comeback from. In fact it has ruined the careers of many highly touted pitchers like Mark Prior for example. But after a successful spring training, Johan will be taking the hill on Opening Day. It will be his first major league start since September 2nd, 2010. But in that season despite not that great a record, he pitched 200 innings and had an ERA just under 3.00. In fact taking out record, innings pitched, and strikeouts, Johan had a better 2010 season than his New York ace counterpart.

Best Case Scenario: Johan returns to true form, having another standout season. Similar to 2010 his record is not all that great but about everything else is excellent.
Worst Case Scenario: Santana's shoulder starts barking early in the season. Another surgery is needed, career is likely over.
My Prediction: Much like the best case scenario, Johan does return to form and has an excellent season despite a so-so record. He is shutdown towards the end of the season but only as a precautionary measure.

R.A. Dickey has been a godsend for the Mets. Every since his call-up in Mid-May 2010, Dickey has been one of the better pitchers in all of baseball. In his two season combined despite a record that could be better, Dickey has pitched 383 innings, and a 3.08 ERA. That's 10th best in all the majors, among the likes of Cole Hammels, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, etc. His ERA did climb from 2.84 to a dreaded 3.28 ERA (On a side-note I highly recommend buying Dickey's memoir Wherever I Wind Up). Dickey proved that he is indeed for real

Best Case Scenario: Dickey continues to prove doubters wrong, posting another stellar season, similar to Johan, despite an OK record.
Worst Case Scenario: The fairy tale comes to an end for R.A., people start to finally figure out the knuckle-baller and he posts less than stellar numbers.
My Prediction: Dickey again has an excellent season. Posting an ERA in the low threes (3.25), and pitch over 200 innings.

Jon Niese has been a bit of an enigma. He struggled early last year, going 1-4 with a 4.71 ERA in April, but appeared to have the season turned around until August where he struggled mightily going 1-3 with a 7.15 ERA including getting shelled by the division rival Phillies allowing 8 runs all earned in just 4 innings leaving the game early due to injury. It turned out to be his last start of the season, being placed on the DL due to a rib-cage injury. Overall Niese took a step forward but with a likely extension coming soon, Niese needs to again improve and show that he can stay healthy for an entire season.
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Best Case Scenario: Niese takes another step forward and becomes a valuable asset in the starting rotation, being able to lower his ERA and pitch over 200 innings.
Worst Case Scenario: Jon does not improve this season, thus making people wonder if he will ever improve. Has an ERA in the low-mid 4.00 range.
My Prediction: Niese does step up his performance this season posting an ERA below 4 (3.75) and going over 200 innings for the first time in his career.

Mike Pelfrey has been a mixed bag to say the least throughout his entire career. He has shown the potential to be a top-line pitcher, and one that looks completely out of place on a major league roster. After a bounce-back year in 2010 in which he won 15 games and had a 3.66 ERA, Pelfrey again slipped posting a 7-13 record and an ERA close to 5.00. One thing to keep an eye out for is Pelfrey has done well in a "bounce-back" year. In 2008 after struggling in 2007 he had a tremendous 2008 season. After a hodgepodge of a 2009, Mike once again came back and had a great 2010 season as mentioned previously.

Best Case Scenario: The trend continues. Mike Pelfrey again bounces back in 2012 and again posts an ERA under 3.70. and lowering his WHIP to under 1.35 (WHIP stands for walks plus hits over innings pitched for those non-sabremetric people).
Worst Case Scenario: Pelfrey again struggles in 2012, and eventually being replaced in the pitching rotation by Chris Young, who was signed to a minor league deal just two weeks ago.
My Prediciton: Pelfrey continues the trend. Having a successful 20102 season posting an ERA in the mid-3's and a WHIP of 1.32.

Dillon Gee started off his first full year in the big-leagues extremely well for a 5th starter. Going 5-1 with a 3.88 ERA before the All-Star break. After the break though, Gee struggled. While he did go 8-5 his ERA jumped close to a full run in 4.70.

Best Case Scenario: Gee proves that last season was no fluke and his personal second half collapse was a mirage, making him a reliability at the back end of the rotation.
Worst Case Scenario: The "sophomore slump" strikes for Dillon Gee. He is unable to build upon the success and struggles to find consistency all season.
My Prediction: Gee does become a reliable arm towards the back-end of the rotation, but leaves more to be desired. Gee pitches to a .500 record and an ERA of around 4.00


Bullpen
This was the main goal coming into the offseason was to re-build the bullpen, after struggling last season following the trade of Francisco Rodriguez to Milwaukee. The acquisition of Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco via free agency and Ramon Ramirez via trade add to the pieces already in place including Tim Byrdak (aka Hulk Hogan), Manny Acosta, and Miguel Bautista. Then there is Bobby Parnell who struggled in late game situations last year but did not allow a run all spring, adding the knuckle curve with the help of Jason Isringhausen, to his arsenal.

Best Case Scenario: The bullpen remains steady all season blowing few saves for the rotation. Frank Francisco saves 30+ games for the Mets.
Worst Case Scenario: The 'pen is as leaky as an old kitchen faucet allowing a lot of runs and blowing many saves and wins for the starters.
My Prediction: Frank Francisco struggles in the closer role, Rauch assumes the role and holds the position down for the remainder of the season. Parnell takes over the set-up role and flourishes.


Bench
The bench was one of the strengths for the Mets last year. With the vast amount of injuries, many of the bench players getting a chance to play everyday. Players like Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada were all forced into the starting lineup due to the injuries of both Ike Davis and David Wright, along with the deadline trade of Carlos Beltran. This year the bench is a lot thinner. Turner did not have that good of a season last year, and many of the bench players are now in the starting lineup.

Best Case Scenario: The bench players step up when needed and make legitimate contributions to the team.
Worst Case Scenario: The bench continues to be a weak link and struggle when given a chance to play everyday due to injuries.
My Prediction: Scott Hairston becomes an asset off the bench while Nickeas and Castro struggle at the the plate.


Overall Prediction
The team performs better than expected, does not make the playoffs but play the role of spoiler at the end of the season, finishing fourth in the division.

Final Record: 78-84 Read More...

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Sunday, April 1, 2012

Mets 2011 Offseason Recap

What began with glimmer of hope, that sank to the deepest spots, has now began to climb out of the hole that was dug. The rough offseason for the New York Mets began with the loss of Jose Reyes to the newly christened Miami Marlins. Instead of siting idly by, General Manager Sandy Alderson used that money to acquire some new pieces to help sure up a bullpen that struggled mightily after the trade of closer Francisco Rodriguez during the All-Star break. None of the pieces that were acquired were quite as flashy as the man they replace but still effective. Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, and Ramon Ramirez all have the task of strengthening a 'pen that consists of Tim Byrdak (aka Hulk Hogan), Pedro Beato, and Manny Accosta.

In January the Mets waived the once highly touted outfield prospect Fernando Martinez, after struggling to stay even remotely healthy for the past two seasons. Later in the month it was revealed that the team's financial struggles were even worse than previously thought. It seemed as though the team would be caught in the middle of a tug-of-war that would cost the Wilpon and Katz family millions of dollars.

February started out quiet but soon became tragic with the passing of Hall-of-Famer Gary Carter after a long battle with brain cancer (on a side note, please buy the "RIP Kid" t-shirts from our good friends at The 7 Line. All proceeds go to the Gary Carter Foundation). Things soon took a turn for the better with the first bullpen session Johan Santana threw. It marked the beginning of his comeback attempt since his last major league appearance in September of 2010. The diagnosis of Valley Fever for Ike Davis came as a shock to all. Many believed that it would be a similar situation to Conor Jackson. Jackson contracted the disease back in May of 2009 and has yet to reach the potential that he once showed. It still may affect Ike but after a full and successful spring it shows no signs of the disease.

It was not that successful of a spring for the Mets record wise. But with the successful springs of most of the starting rotation (outside of Mike Pelfrey) and a many of the lineup (except Jason Bay), the Mets may do better than many have predicted.

COMING SOON: Mets 2012 Season preview. Read More...

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Wednesday, January 11, 2012

The Fall of A Star

The dream has ended for the Mets. It's sad since that dream did not really get a chance to blossom. But with the waiving of once highly touted prospect Fernando Martinez, the organization can finally move past what has become a pipe dream.

Signed by Omar Minaya back in 2005 at the age of 16, Fernando was seen as the next great thing, twice being listed as the organization's top prospect by Baseball America. But ever since that point his status within the organization has been on the decline. After an outstanding 2008 season in which he split time between rookie ball and the AA team (hitting .292 and an OPS of .785 along with 8 HR and 43 RBI in 90 games), his skills began to diminish noticeably. Martinez was finally called up during mid-season but was unimpressive during his short 29 game stint in the majors. In 100 plate appearances, Fernando hit just .176 and an .517 OPS with 1 home run and 8 runs batted in. His minor league statistics fared much better (.290 batting average, .877 OPS 8 homers but just 28 RBI's in only 45 games).

Injuries truly began to catch up with Martinez in the 2010 season. Again making a very brief appearance in the majors (only 7 games), he simply could not stay on the field on a consistent basis, and was unimpressive when he was, compiling a .254 batting average with an OPS of .765.

2011 wasn't much better for the former can't miss prospect. Again he missed significant time with a combination of injuries, including a right hamstring strain which has caused him to miss a total of 64 games over the course of three seasons. Hitting .260 and notching a rather mediocre .746 OPS combined with another 8 home runs and 30 RBI's.

It is upsetting to see someone who is still so very young be cut loose without any compensation but because of the chronic injuries and the reported arthritic knees, the move should come as no surprise to Met fans who simply grew tired of waiting for the former blue chip prospect. His talent is still there but there is simply no question that the brightest star in organization has fallen.

UPDATE:
On Wednesday, January 11th Fernando was claimed by the Houston Astros. Read More...

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Saturday, July 16, 2011

Why Trading Away Francisco Rodriguez is a Good Thing

After a long day at work on Tuesday, I come home only to hear that closer Francisco Rodriguez has been traded away to the Milwaukee Brewers. My initial thoughts consisted of "Why would we do that? We're still in the Wild Card hunt." and "Uh-oh, here comes the fire sale." But after a few days of thinking about the deal, it actually makes sense. Here's why.


With Jose Reyes becoming a free agent and given the current financial situation that the team is in, the Mets could not afford (literally and figuratively) to pick up the option of $17.5 million if he had finished 55 games this season. Having already finished 34 games, it seemed in all likelihood that the option would be picked up and the Mets would lose Reyes.

Reyes has become invaluable to this team in what could possibly be an MVP type season. Hitting .354 with 30 stolen bases, 15 triples, an on base percentage of just under .400 (.398) [that's a good thing], and slugging a shade under .530 (.529) Reyes will likely land a big contract somewhere including with the Mets now that there is no worry of K-Rod reaching his mark.
With the contracts of Rodriguez, Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran all coming off the books, the organization can make a legitimate offer to Reyes.

But, the risk with that comes with this trade is that the bullpen becomes unsettled with no roles set for players like Bobby Parnell, Pedro Beato, Ryota Igarashi, and Jason Isringhausen. This could mean that the team falls out of contention and the fire sale begins. This is something that no fan ever wants to see. If that happens then the already slim turnout at Citi Field will become an empty cavern.

The K-Rod trade makes sense, but it will not be worth it if there is no payoff.
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Saturday, June 11, 2011

The Reason for Jason Bay's struggles

So far in the 2011 season Jason Bay has been a shell of his former self. Many people are wondering why that is. It seems people are stumped that someone once so good can be this bad. I have a theory about his struggles. I believe that Bay is still suffering some of the after effects from his concussion suffered last year.


For those who need reminding, this is what happened against the Dodgers last July, http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10206385. Although he remained in the game for five more innings, Bay did not return for the rest of the season.

What makes me believe that Bay is still suffering from Post Concussion syndrome is that his day and night splits are drastically different. In 26 night games and 94 AB's Bay a batting average of .160, an on base percentage of .243, and slugging just .213 with 10 runs scored 15 hits 1 home run 7 RBI's 10 walks 25 strikeouts and 2 stolen bases.
In just 13 day games and 46 AB's Bay has less strikeouts, about the same amount of runs scored, walked, hits, and stolen bases with a way higher average, on base percentage and slugging percentage with .304 .429 and .416 respectively. Now those numbers alone hint at my theory but what confirms this is Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Mourneau has the same issue. After his concussion Morneau has struggled to return to his potential MVP form this season. Morneau's day/night splits also hint at the lingering affects of a concussion. One explanation for this happening is that after a concussion, the bright stadium lights make it difficult to see and can cause headaches for those who have suffered a concussion. With the fluorescent lights, which shine brighter than natural light, it is not hard to see that this is possible.

It is difficult to know whether or not Bay will return to his old form this season, if ever. But with this "discovery" I urge fellow Met fans to be patient and let Bay try to find himself.
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011

The Rise and Fall of Oliver Perez


Today officially marks the end of an era. Or as some would call it, an error as the Mets have officially released Oliver Perez from the team. Having failed to live up to his 36 million dollar 3 year contract, this result certainly was not unexpected. But it is sad to think about what once was for the Mexican Titanic, as he is referred to by some.


Perez first arrived here in New York 4 1/2 years ago in a deal that brought back Roberto Hernandez to the Mets in exchange for Xavier Nady. He came very much unpolished but with a lot of potential. He was wild, and could barely get anyone out (sound
familiar?) but with a blazing fastball, and a wicked slider and curve, many batters were prone to striking out against the lefty.

Making his Mets debut on August 26 of that season, he struggled in his first two starts before pitching a complete game shutout in the second
game of a double-header against Atlanta on September 6th. Having only expected to pitch in the regular season, Perez was called upon to pitch Game 4 of the NLCS against St. Louis where he earned his first (and only) post season win, despite giving up five runs in 5 1/3 innings. After Steve Trachsel's horrendous performance in Game 3 (what turned out to be his last ever start for the Mets), Perez was called upon to pitch in Game 7. Having
pitched brilliantly for 5 1/3 innings he allowed Jim Edmonds to get on base, then came a moment that shall live on in Met lore.

The next season Ollie won 15 games and had a 3.56 ERA, which led many to believe that he was starting to turn a corner towards consistency. In the 2008 season Perez struggled early in the season, but after the midnight massacre of Willie Randolph and his staff, Ollie performed much better after tweaking his wind-up to more of a bowing motion. After failing to escape the 5th inning in his second to last start, Perez was tapped to pitch what would turn out to be the last ever game at Shea. He went 5 1/3 innings allowing 2 runs in the process. Making many fans including myself feel as though he had turned a corner as was ready to become more consistent.

In 2009 after signing his big contract Perez failed to live up to expectations, going 3-4 with a 6.82 ERA and often struggling with velocity and control allowing 58 walks in 66 innings. 2010

faired no better for Ollie. On May 15th he was sent to the bullpen after refusing to be sent to the minors despite his poor play. June 5th he was put on the 15 day DL with an injury to his right knee. With some people claiming it was a ploy by the team to have Perez sent away, after this the league investigated and declared it was legitimate. From July 21st on he made just six more appearances all in relief including the final game of the 2010 regular season where he walked in the game winning run in the 14th inning.

Ollie may be seen as a complete and total failure by many fans. But but we shouldn't forget those moments that made us think about what could have been.
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Monday, November 22, 2010

Introducing the New Regime

With the announcement of Terry Collins as the new manager on Sunday the new regime was completed. With Sandy Alderson leading the charge and Paul DePodesta along with JP Riccardi in the background we should see a rise in the team relatively soon. I for one am not a fan of Collins (Melvin was my choice) I am certainly glad it is not Wally Backman. Having only held a Major League job for less than a week due to personal issues, one can only imagine what other skeletons would come out of the closet if he were to be named manager.


Collins makes sense for this team. While his record isn't as flashy as some would like (10 games above .500), many within the organization are big fans of him. While he is no spring chicken at the age of 62, Collins is considered by many to be energetic and a likable personality. While that doesn't exactly win games, his former position of Minor League Coordinator should help with the young players on this squad.

Alderson seems to know what he's doing. After building the 1980's Oakland A's and after the change in ownership, Alderson drafted two of the "Big Three" and set the table for what has become a cultural phenomenon that is Moneyball. What will become of the team is unknown at this point. But I sure am liking the direction that it's heading in.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Murphy's Law: The trials and tribulations of Daniel Murphy

If there is one person who can represent how this season has gone for the Mets it has been Daniel Murphy. He started the season in left but has been playing first base since around midseason. However, we tend to forget that he's been one of the players that we've been relying on to contribute due to all the injuries that have occurred throughout this season. We also fail to realize that he is in his first full year in the major leagues.


Last year in his 2 month stint in the major leagues Murphy had a batting average of .313, a slugging percentage of .473, and an on base percentage of .397. This season up to this point he has had an average of .262, a slugging percentage of .412 and an on base percentage of .311. Now this is a pretty big drop in just one season. But people don't seem to realize that he's only in his first full year in the major leagues. Something like this is to be expected but not necessarily to this extent. Murphy also now leads the team with 11 home runs this at this point in the season. If that doesn't say lost season then I don't know what does.

Why are we so quick to judge on someone who deserves his time to grow? I certainly believe that he can contribute to this team when we are back at full strength. Now just recently on WFAN Mike Francessa has said that he can see him going along the path of a Don Mattingly or a Mark Grace. I actually agree with this. From what I've been told Murphy has a very similar player to Mattingly early on in his career at the plate. A hitter who mostly hits the ball the opposite way. But Francesca also said that he can see him become the next Matt Franco. For those who don't recall Matt Franco, he was a bench player who did nothing flashy his entire career. Unfortunately I can see this coming true also.

Only time will tell what the future holds for Murphy. I hope that he is successful in his tenure for this team, and that he will contribute for us for a long time to come.
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Saturday, August 29, 2009

The Wilpons: The enemy you know, better than the unknown

A lot of people in the Global Facebook Group (including myself) have been clammering for the Wilpons to sell the team for years. And those people may soon get their wish. According to a person who works for Fox Business (not the most reliable source), the Wilpons may be forced to sell the team as early as next year due to the money lost in the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme.


Now if indeed that happens there will be people jumping up and down for days to come. While listening to WFAN on my way home from an appointment, I heard Evan Roberts bring up an excellent point. We don't know what the new ownership will be like. They might treat the team as if it is strictly a business operation and forget that there is a product on the field as well. If this is true, the person I would want to run the team would be Mark Cuban, because he does know how to successfully operate a sports franchise on both ends.

We can all speculate if this is true but we all must be careful what we wish for because it might just come true, but not in the way people may have hoped. For all we know they may want to cut payroll, thus getting rid of big payroll people such as Beltran Ollie, Santana, and K-Rod. Possibly even Wright, and Reyes.

People do forget that when the Wilpons first bought the team that it wasn't just them. There was another owner, Nelson Doubleday who also bought controlling interest in 1980. The two of them owned it together up until 2002 when Doubleday was bought out. So this team has won a championship under their ownership.

If indeed this happens fans certainly won't be happy. It might even make the Wilpons look like the Steinbrenners. So all I ask is that if there is a new ownership do some reasearch before hand.
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Friday, August 21, 2009

The 2009 Mets: Your disaster has come

Well this must come as a big shocker to all Met fans. We suck this season. But through no fault of anyone. Sure we all wish there was someone to blame for this horrendous season, but I can not for the life of me find anyone to blame it on.


This season has been a disaster but not because of horrible play or bad management. It is simply due to all the injuries we have sustained over this season. I would like to see any team go through this many injuries especially to their star players. It would be simply impossible for a team to contend. This team is relying on players that were either on the bench or in the minor leagues to start this season. The only players who were in the opening day lineup at the start of the season are a pitcher, a catcher who is hitting .182 this season, and a second baseman. To me that speaks volumes about this team.

I am lead to believe that any other team with this many injuries would also be in our current situation. Tell me that the Yankees would be in first place without Texiera, Jeter, Posada, A-Rod, Joba, Damon, and Hughes. I think not. So why are people so upset that the Mets suck right now? The media (especially ESPN), as Jayson Albert pointed out, seems to be utterly baffled by the "demise" of the Mets. Yet every opportunity that they have to make fun of the Mets they take it and run with it.

People may want to blame Jerry Manuel but why? What role does he have in creating this team? Is it his fault he has no players to work with? Others may want to blame Omar Minaya for creating this mess or at least not trying to fix it. But again I ask why? Did we know that 2/5 of the teams starting rotation, all four of our main hitters, our setup man, and half of our reserves were to go on the DL? The answer simply is no.

Now people may ask "Couldn't we have done something in the offseason to prevent this?" And the answer that question is no, but not for the reason many people would think. It was reported that the Wilpons lost some money due to the Madoff scheme, but they managed to keep their funds out of the Mets. But as reports are now saying they lost 3/4 of a BILLION dollars. It is hard to say that is not having an effect on this team also. When you lose that amount of money it is hard not to believe that some of it came from the Mets pockets.

My remedy for this mess, wait it out. When this season finally comes to an end, I believe that we must make a splash. It it unfortunately means the end of the Omar-Jerry era so be it. But if you do that and come up empty prepare for the backlash that will soon follow. A better option would be to make a splash in free agency with the signing of either Matt Holiday or Victor Martinez (if his option is not picked up) Signing either one of them will help regenerate the buzz that has been lacking for most of this season. And hopefully we will not be picked by SI to win the World Series again.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

The Contribution of Pedro Martinez

Sunday (if all goes right) The Mets will face the man whom many (including myself) dubbed as the savior of this Mets franchise. That person being Pedro Martinez. Now obviously he didn't do much on the field but his off the field contributions made him worth the contract that the Mets gave him back in the winter of 2004.


Coming off of the dismal regime of Art Howe and Jim Duquette, the Mets needed to completely revamp the franchise. There seemed to only be one man for the job and that man was Pedro. Once he signed with us we became credible again and made players want to come here.

I believe that without the Pedro deal we might be in a playoff drought A LOT longer than the one we're currently in. Think about this potential 2009 starting lineup

P Kris Benson
C Ramon Castro
1B Doug Mientkiewicz
2B Kaz Matsui
SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
LF Lastings Milledge
CF Mike Cameron
RF Sean Green

Not all that pretty. I believe that without the acquistion of Pedro we have almost none of the players that we have now. I'm sure RCIII is now regretting that we ever signed him. Since he is now a Philly there will be some boos but if I were there I would give him a standing ovation for all of his work for this franchise.
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