After a 2011 season that showed signs of life but ultimately crashed and burned the 2012 season for the New York Mets does not appear to be any better. In fact with the loss of Jose Reyes and a questionable bullpen, it may even be worse. There were bright spots for this team, but the many of the key players did not play up to their potential. The rotation was a bright spot last season with the continued success of R.A. Dickey, the first half success of Dillon Gee, the surprise of Chris Cappuano, and the development of John Niese.


Starting Lineup
The starting lineup when healthy should look something like this
Andres Torres (CF)
Daniel Murphy (2B)
David Wright (3B)
Ike Davis (1B)
Jason Bay (LF)
Lucas Duda (RF)
Josh Thole (C)
Ruben Tejada (SS)

Torres was acquired in a trade that sent away Angel Pagan to San Francisco for both Torres and reliever Ramon Ramirez. After a decent 2009 and 2010 season where it appeared that Torres was becoming an decent  everyday player, he fell off dramatically in 2011, hitting just .221 with just 4 home runs and 19 RBI's along with  a .312 on base percentage, and a .330 slugging.

Best Case Scenario: Torres is able to return to form and be a serviceable player in the line up
Worst Case Scenario: Torres' decline continues and is eventually replaced in the every-day lineup.
My Prediction: Torres struggles early on which leads to a platoon with him and Scott Hairston but production picks up as the season goes on.

Murphy had a career year last year, hitting .320 with an obp of .363 and a slugging of .448 last year. Before he injured his knee Murphy was 5th in the National League batting race behind the likes of Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, and Jose Reyes.  His defense still leaves something to be desired and the switch to a new position at second base is not a pleasant thought. Though he has made some nice plays in the field.

Best Case Scenario: Murphy continues to hit at a high level and is able to perform up to his potential without any recoil from his knee.
Worst Case Scenario: Murphy takes a big step back, struggles to be consistent and is a defensive liability due to lack of offense.ea
My Prediction: While he does take somewhat of a step back (I don't think he'll hit .320), he will still be a very good hitter who gets on base. I believe he will hit somewhere in the .280-.290 range with a slight increase in his power numbers.

David Wright has been on a decline in the three seasons since the opening of Citi Field. And coming off an injury plagued season, Wright is looking to prove that he still is the player that he has shown he could be. The changing of the dimensions should help improve his offensive game but we will have to wait and see what happens.

Best Case Scenario: Wright returns to form, cutting down on the strikeout rate that has risen since 2009, and is able to return to the 30-115 with .300+ batting average and .400 on base %.
Worst Case Scenario: The slide continues for Wright. He proves that he no longer is the player that we once thought he was. His option is declined and is let go of at the end of the season, thus officially ending the Wright/Reyes era.
My Prediction: The new dimensions do help Wright return close to form. While he doesn't hit 30 homers like he once did, he does cut down on the strikeouts and raises his HR total to 25 with 120 RBI's

Coming off essentially a full season missed due to an ankle injury, Ike Davis looks to prove that he can stay healthy for a full season. In his rookie year, Davis hit .264 with 19 HR's and 71 RBI's with a .351 on base, and a .440 slugging percentage. In his very limited time before he got hurt, Ike hit .302  with a .383 OB% along with .543 slugging.

Best Case Scenario: Ike doesn't miss a beat, his power numbers increase hitting close to 25 HR and over 100 RBI's and is named an All-Star reserve.
Worst Case Scenario: The Valley Fever diagnosis finally kicks in and Ike is lost for the entire season, making fans worry if he will ever be the same
My Prediction: Ike returns to normal and has a very productive season, is in the running for the First Base All-Star spot in the National League, and is chosen as a reserve, his first All-Star appearance.

Jason Bay has been a complete and utter bust in his two seasons with the Mets. He has yet to play a full season playing in a total of 218 games, hitting .251 with 18 HR's 104 RBI's during time here. I have a theory why he struggled last year. Like Wright, it appears to be a make or break year for Jason, with talk floating around that he may possibly be platooned or even released if he does not perform.

Best Case Scenario: Bay finally becomes the player that the Mets hoped he was. He is able to remain a relatively healthy, productive member of the lineup.
Worst Case Scenario: Jason's struggles continue to follow him throughout the season until he is released.
My Prediction: Bay returns to form. While he "sexy numbers" (my term meaning HR's and RBI's) still leave something to be desired, his average returns to around .280-.285 and his on base percentage climbs up to near .400

Lucas Duda got off to a horrible start last season. Filling in for an injured Jason Bay, Duda hit a measly .118 with only two hits in the entire month of April. But after his recall from the minors The Dude went on a tear for the rest of the season, hitting .302 with 10 HR's and 49 RBI's from mid-June on, proving to be a valuable asset on offense.

Best Case Scenario: Duda continues to prove that he is a valuable offensive piece and takes big advantage of the change in dimensions.
Worst Case Scenario: Last year proves to be a fluke, Duda struggles this season, and leaves a big hole in the lineup.
My Prediction: Lucas becomes a key player in the lineup and becomes a vital part of the team, hitting 25 HR's, 110 RBI and a .290 batting average.

From just the good old fashioned eye test, it looked as though Josh Thole had a horrible year both on the field and at the plate. And while the former is semi-true, the latter certainly is not. Hitting a decent .270 with an on base percentage of .345, his "sexy numbers" left more to be desired hitting only 3 home-runs and 40 RBI's.


Best Case Scenario: Thole's upward trend continues on both sides of the plate. His offensive numbers rise slightly due to the shortened dimensions and becomes a better defensive catcher playing in more games.
Worst Case Scenario: Josh regresses, and with no suitable replacement in either free agency or in the farm system, Mets are forced to ride out the storm with essentially seven men in the lineup.
My Prediction: Thole's game steadily increases as the season progresses. He doesn't become the offensive threat that many believe him to be but he does become a viable option in key situations.

2011 proved to be a standout year for Ruben Tejada. But with Jose Reyes "taking his talents to South Beach" Tejada must now fill the void left by the All-Star shortstop. Tejada does appear up to the task. A good bat that only got better as the season went on, and a glove on par with Reyes'. The question remains though can he keep up his production of the course of a grueling 162 game schedule.


Best Case Scenario: Jose who? Tejada has a breakout year and makes many Met fans the man he took over short-stop for.
Worst Case Scenario: Tejada falters. Fans start calling for his head since he is not the man who he is replacing.
My Prediction: Tejada does have a breakout year. While not on the level of Jose Reyes, Ruben has an excellent year and is eventually moved up to the leadoff spot.



Starting Rotation
The pitching rotation when at full strength will likely look similar to this:
Johan Santana
R.A. Dickey
Jon Niese
Mike Pelfrey
Dillon Gee

Johan Santana is coming off a shoulder injury which not many have successfully comeback from. In fact it has ruined the careers of many highly touted pitchers like Mark Prior for example. But after a successful spring training, Johan will be taking the hill on Opening Day. It will be his first major league start since September 2nd, 2010. But in that season despite not that great a record, he pitched 200 innings and had an ERA just under 3.00. In fact taking out record, innings pitched, and strikeouts, Johan had a better 2010 season than his New York ace counterpart.

Best Case Scenario: Johan returns to true form, having another standout season. Similar to 2010 his record is not all that great but about everything else is excellent.
Worst Case Scenario: Santana's shoulder starts barking early in the season. Another surgery is needed, career is likely over.
My Prediction: Much like the best case scenario, Johan does return to form and has an excellent season despite a so-so record. He is shutdown towards the end of the season but only as a precautionary measure.

R.A. Dickey has been a godsend for the Mets. Every since his call-up in Mid-May 2010, Dickey has been one of the better pitchers in all of baseball. In his two season combined despite a record that could be better, Dickey has pitched 383 innings, and a 3.08 ERA. That's 10th best in all the majors, among the likes of Cole Hammels, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, etc. His ERA did climb from 2.84 to a dreaded 3.28 ERA (On a side-note I highly recommend buying Dickey's memoir Wherever I Wind Up). Dickey proved that he is indeed for real

Best Case Scenario: Dickey continues to prove doubters wrong, posting another stellar season, similar to Johan, despite an OK record.
Worst Case Scenario: The fairy tale comes to an end for R.A., people start to finally figure out the knuckle-baller and he posts less than stellar numbers.
My Prediction: Dickey again has an excellent season. Posting an ERA in the low threes (3.25), and pitch over 200 innings.

Jon Niese has been a bit of an enigma. He struggled early last year, going 1-4 with a 4.71 ERA in April, but appeared to have the season turned around until August where he struggled mightily going 1-3 with a 7.15 ERA including getting shelled by the division rival Phillies allowing 8 runs all earned in just 4 innings leaving the game early due to injury. It turned out to be his last start of the season, being placed on the DL due to a rib-cage injury. Overall Niese took a step forward but with a likely extension coming soon, Niese needs to again improve and show that he can stay healthy for an entire season.
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Best Case Scenario: Niese takes another step forward and becomes a valuable asset in the starting rotation, being able to lower his ERA and pitch over 200 innings.
Worst Case Scenario: Jon does not improve this season, thus making people wonder if he will ever improve. Has an ERA in the low-mid 4.00 range.
My Prediction: Niese does step up his performance this season posting an ERA below 4 (3.75) and going over 200 innings for the first time in his career.

Mike Pelfrey has been a mixed bag to say the least throughout his entire career. He has shown the potential to be a top-line pitcher, and one that looks completely out of place on a major league roster. After a bounce-back year in 2010 in which he won 15 games and had a 3.66 ERA, Pelfrey again slipped posting a 7-13 record and an ERA close to 5.00. One thing to keep an eye out for is Pelfrey has done well in a "bounce-back" year. In 2008 after struggling in 2007 he had a tremendous 2008 season. After a hodgepodge of a 2009, Mike once again came back and had a great 2010 season as mentioned previously.

Best Case Scenario: The trend continues. Mike Pelfrey again bounces back in 2012 and again posts an ERA under 3.70. and lowering his WHIP to under 1.35 (WHIP stands for walks plus hits over innings pitched for those non-sabremetric people).
Worst Case Scenario: Pelfrey again struggles in 2012, and eventually being replaced in the pitching rotation by Chris Young, who was signed to a minor league deal just two weeks ago.
My Prediciton: Pelfrey continues the trend. Having a successful 20102 season posting an ERA in the mid-3's and a WHIP of 1.32.

Dillon Gee started off his first full year in the big-leagues extremely well for a 5th starter. Going 5-1 with a 3.88 ERA before the All-Star break. After the break though, Gee struggled. While he did go 8-5 his ERA jumped close to a full run in 4.70.

Best Case Scenario: Gee proves that last season was no fluke and his personal second half collapse was a mirage, making him a reliability at the back end of the rotation.
Worst Case Scenario: The "sophomore slump" strikes for Dillon Gee. He is unable to build upon the success and struggles to find consistency all season.
My Prediction: Gee does become a reliable arm towards the back-end of the rotation, but leaves more to be desired. Gee pitches to a .500 record and an ERA of around 4.00


Bullpen
This was the main goal coming into the offseason was to re-build the bullpen, after struggling last season following the trade of Francisco Rodriguez to Milwaukee. The acquisition of Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco via free agency and Ramon Ramirez via trade add to the pieces already in place including Tim Byrdak (aka Hulk Hogan), Manny Acosta, and Miguel Bautista. Then there is Bobby Parnell who struggled in late game situations last year but did not allow a run all spring, adding the knuckle curve with the help of Jason Isringhausen, to his arsenal.

Best Case Scenario: The bullpen remains steady all season blowing few saves for the rotation. Frank Francisco saves 30+ games for the Mets.
Worst Case Scenario: The 'pen is as leaky as an old kitchen faucet allowing a lot of runs and blowing many saves and wins for the starters.
My Prediction: Frank Francisco struggles in the closer role, Rauch assumes the role and holds the position down for the remainder of the season. Parnell takes over the set-up role and flourishes.


Bench
The bench was one of the strengths for the Mets last year. With the vast amount of injuries, many of the bench players getting a chance to play everyday. Players like Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada were all forced into the starting lineup due to the injuries of both Ike Davis and David Wright, along with the deadline trade of Carlos Beltran. This year the bench is a lot thinner. Turner did not have that good of a season last year, and many of the bench players are now in the starting lineup.

Best Case Scenario: The bench players step up when needed and make legitimate contributions to the team.
Worst Case Scenario: The bench continues to be a weak link and struggle when given a chance to play everyday due to injuries.
My Prediction: Scott Hairston becomes an asset off the bench while Nickeas and Castro struggle at the the plate.


Overall Prediction
The team performs better than expected, does not make the playoffs but play the role of spoiler at the end of the season, finishing fourth in the division.

Final Record: 78-84