I've been extremely busy the last week, hence the inactivity at this site, but now that I have some time, lets continue with our breakdown of the 2008 Mets by looking at the situation at Shortstop.

Shortstop

First String:
Jose Reyes
This one is obviously a no brainer, the Mets' All-Star shortstop has all the tools to once again be in the running for the National League's MVP, and he's still only 24. The classic lead-off hitter; Reyes has blazing speed, a good OBP and scores a lot of runs. He's a safe bet to swipe 60 bases, have an OBP over .350 and score 120 runs. Did I forget to mention he'll most likely have 15 triples and 15 home runs? It's pretty much understood by Mets fans that as Reyes goes, so goes the team. For you statisticians out there, I recently ran a regression of Reyes' 2007 numbers to test this theory. A regression showing the relationship between the number of times Reyes is on base and the outcome of the game, yields a coefficient of .10139, which basically means each additional time Reyes reached base in any given game, the Mets were 10% more likely to win that game. So if Reyes reached base 4 times, the Mets would be 40% more likely to win than had he not reached base. Conversely, if Reyes didn't get on base the Mets would be 10% more likely to lose than had he gotten on base once, or 20% less likely than if he had gotten on base twice. This coefficient was by far the highest of all the Mets regulars last season. To see the data for this analysis, you can download the excel file here. Expect Reyes to start and play almost every inning of every game this season.

Second String:
Ruben Gotay/Anderson Hernandez
Because the Mets figure Reyes will play almost every game, barring injury, there really isn't much of a need to have a full-time backup at shortstop. Officially, the Mets depth chart lists Ruben Gotay ahead of Anderson Hernandez to back up Jose Reyes, probably due to the fact that Hernandez has little chance to make the team this year, and Gotay is a much better hitter. Gotay has only played 20 innings at shortstop in his career because he is a natural second baseman, whereas Hernandez is a natural shortstop. If Reyes, for one reason or another, needs to come out of a game, or is out for a very short period of time, the Mets will probably just use Gotay. However, if Reyes is placed on the DL or out for a prolonged period of time, the Mets may want to go with a sure handed defensive shortstop, and bring up Hernandez.