Sunday, April 7, 2013
2013 New York Mets Season Preview
The 2012 New York Mets saw many highlights last season. A no-hitter, a 20 game winner and Cy Young winner, and a new team leader in hits, and a piece of the future puzzle. But once again, the second half swoon came into play. The Mets won 74 games last season, 4 less than 2011. This season looks as though the hardships will continue, (Who will replace the 20 wins R.A. Dickey gave the Mets last season?), (Who will replace Santana in the rotation?) the future appears bright. With the likely additions of Zack Wheeler and Travis d'Arnaud sometime before the season ends, fans might get a glimpse at the future of the starting rotations with Wheeler, Harvey and Niese.
STARTING LINEUP:
The optimal lineup for the start of this season will likely be as follows
Collin Cowgill-CF
Daniel Murphy-2B
David Wright-3B
Ike Davis-1B
Marlon Byrd-RF
Lucas Duda-LF
John Buck- C
Ruben Tejada- SS
(Pitcher)
Not exactly Murderers' Row, but if each player hits to his full potential the Mets might surprise a few people and be the sneaky contender for that second Wild-Card spot, introduced just last season.
Collin Cowgill was acquired in the offseason via trade with the Oakland A's in exchange for Jefry Marte. An impressive Spring Training landed Cowgill the starting Center-Field spot over contenders like Matt den Dekker, Jordany Valdespin, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.
Best Case Scenario:
Cowgill proves his worth to the team by starting 120 games, hitting around .270 with a high on base percentage and a good glove.
Worst Case Scenario:
Cowgill struggles and struggles mightily with the Mets, hitting a measly .210, his speed declines over the course of the season and is eventually replaced in the lineup by Jordany Valdespin. Cowgill is also released in order to make room on the roster for prospect Matt den Dekker.
My Prediction:
Cowgill makes a nice contribution to the team hitting around .255-.260 with a relatively high OBP and makes some nice defensive plays in the outfield.
Daniel Murphy makes it for his third consecutive Opening Day this year and for the second consecutive year at second base. Last year Murphy hit .291 with an on base percentage of .331 while slugging .403 for a .734 OPS, a drop from his underrated 2011 performance in which he was fifth in batting at the time of his knee injury.
Best Case Scenario
Murphy continues to make improvements in his game both on the field and at the plate. Murphy's average rises back to over .300 with slightly more power than last time.
Worst Case Scenario
Murphy's production drops significantly, making many wonder if he really is the answer long term at second base. Eventually he is replaced by Mets prospect Wilmer Flores at second.
My Prediction
Murphy shows why he belongs in the everyday lineup, hitting .290 with a .345 OBP. His defense still leaves something to be desired but proves to be more than satisfactory.
David Wright was a huge question mark heading into the offseason, though not because of his on the field production. After a dismal 2011 season in which he missed a significant amount of time due to a back injury, Wright returned to form. In the first half, many thought Wright would be the MVP, but unfortunately when the bats went cold, so did Wright's. With rumors swirling that he might be traded, the Mets and Wright put those to bed when he signed an 8 year $138 million extension. During Spring Training Wright was officially named the captain of the Mets, only the fourth player to have such honor.
Best Case Scenario
After a hot World Baseball Classic that saw him earn the nickname "Captain America", Wright continues the torrid pace, putting up numbers of an MVP level.
Worst Case Scenario
Wright struggles mightily this season, making fans question whether or not the Mets should have given the money to Jose Reyes instead of Wright.
My Prediction
While not MVP level numbers, Wright shows why he earned his new contract, putting up numbers that haven't been seen from him since Shea Stadium.
To say Ike Davis struggled in the first half of last season for the Mets would be a massive understatement. Hitting a measly .201 with a .271 OBP and slugging .388, many questioned if Ike Davis was ever going to be the player that he was thought to be when he first burst onto the scene in 2010. But in the second half Ike picked up production showing signs that he might still be that player
Best Case Scenario
In an arbitration year, Ike shows why he should be payed a large sum. Hitting 30 HR's, and eclipsing the 100 RBI mark for the first time in his career.
Worst Case Scenario
Ike's first half struggles from last year prove to be more than just a fluke, making fans wonder if Ike is a part of the team for the long-haul.
My Prediction
Ike starts off the year cold but as the temperature warms up, so does Ike's bat. Ike's season is much like his rookie season .270, 90 RBI's, 20 HR's, and a .330 OBP.
Marlon Byrd in 2013 is looking to bounce back from one of the worst seasons of his career, including a 50 game suspension for Performance Entrancing Drugs. A standout Spring not only earned him a roster spot but
a place in the starting lineup as well.
Best Case Scenario
Byrd proves to be a great pickup for the Mets by providing consistent offense and a good glove in right field.
Worst Case Scenario
Byrd falters with the Mets and is eventually replaced by no-hitter folk hero Mike Baxter in the lineup and later outright released.
My Prediction
Byrd plays well enough to retain a roster spot but not well enough to continue starting and is replaced by Mike Baxter
Lucas Duda continues to be a mystery for the Mets. With no legitimate options in the outfield Duda remains the starting left fielder. But for how long is the question?
Best Case Scenario
With tweaks to his swing Duda shows why he needs to remain in the everyday lineup. Hitting 20 HR's and over 80 RBI's with an average around .275 and an OBP of over .320.
Worst Case Scenario
Duda again struggles this season and is finally let go in order to name room for den Dekker.
My Prediction
While he doesn't show the power that made him so popular in the Mets front office, Duda does enough to stay in the lineup.
John Buck, acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade (Buck was also traded to Toronto in the Jose Reyes deal), looks to prove his worth while top catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud, one of the centerpieces in the Dickey trade, waits in the wings at AAA Las Vegas.
Best Case Scenario
Buck's performance makes fans forget about d'Arnaud until September call ups and see what it is like to have a legitimate catcher for the first time since Paul LoDuca.
Worst Case Scenario
Buck struggles to keep himself in the lineup, making fans beg to see d'Arnaud faster than the front office may wish to do.
My Prediction
Buck starts off hot for the Mets crushing the ball into early June but is later moved to help improve the bullpen and make room for d'Arnaud.
Ruben Tejada had a standout year in his first season as full-time starter at shortstop. While not completely erasing the memory of the departed Jose Reyes, Tejada did more than enough to show why he is the long-term answer at the position.
Best Case Scenario
Tejada improves upon his breakout 2012 season and continues to prove Sandy Alderson right when he let Jose Reyes walk in free agency.
Worst Case Scenario
Tejada struggles to stay healthy this season. While not replaced, Tejada is constantly reminded by the fans of his predecessor.
My Prediction
Tejada shines as he continues to prove his doubters wrong, hitting over .300 and earning a Gold Glove as well.
STARTING ROTATION
With the trade of R.A. Dickey and the shoulder injury to Johan Santana the starting rotation will look a lot different than it has for the last few seasons.
Niese
Harvey
Gee
Marcum
Hefner
Jon Niese proved very effective last season as the third starter, going 13-9 with a 3.40 ERA. Now, as the ace of the staff, Niese seeks to improve upon those numbers for the 2013 season.
Best Case Scenario
Niese again shows why he was given the contract extension last season and shows that he is not to be forgotten in the Mets' plans going into the future.
Worst Case Scenario
Niese's proneness to injury again rears its ugly head and he is lost for the season, throwing the rotation into a further state of disarray.
My Prediction
While not flashy, Niese continues to show why he should be considered among the game's better pitchers.
Matt Harvey burst onto the scene right from his major league debut when he struck out 11 batters. Harvey showed many signs of brilliance during his short stint in 2012. Now a lock for the rotation, Harvey looks to show why the future is bright for the Mets.
Best Case Scenario
Harvey dominates the league and wins the National League Rookie of the Year title, becoming the first Met to earn the title since Dwight Gooden in 1984.
Worst Case Scenario
Harvey takes a step back in his development and falls into the "Sophomore Slump".
My Prediction
Harvey continues to prove why he is considered one of the best young arms in baseball, winning the strikeout title.
Dillon Gee is looking to rebound from his 2012 season and show he can stay healthy. Gee was shut down for the entire second half of the season due to a blood clot of his artery located in his right shoulder, his throwing shoulder.
Best Case Scenario
Gee shows that he is more than just a fifth starter. He stays healthy and pitches more than 170 innings.
Worst Case Scenario
Gee's shoulder again flares up and again is shut down. This time, perhaps, for the remainder of his career.
My Prediction
While not turning any heads, Gee lends a steady hand to the rotation and proves his worth in the dog days of summer.
Shaun Marcum, signed as a free agent in the offseason, looks to prove he can stay healthy. A feat that he has not accomplished so far in his career.
Best Case Scenario
Marcum shows that he is more than just a stopgap for top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler.
Worst Case Scenario
Marcum misses significant time due to injury and when he does pitch he proves ineffective.
My Prediction
Like much of his career Marcum misses significant time with various injuries but when on the mound Marcum shows why he was signed in the first place.
Jeremy Hefner takes the place of Johan Santana in the rotation. Last year, Hefner was mostly used as the long man and spot starter. This year he looks to show why he earned the chance to be in the starting rotation.
Best Case Scenario
Hefner proves he can hang with the big boys and holds his own, keeping Wheeler at bay for just a little while longer.
Worst Case Scenario
Hefner shows signs that he can pitch full time as a starter but they are few and far between and is sent to the bullpen to make room for Wheeler.
Hefner proves satisfactory but is eventually moved out of the starting
rotation to make room for Wheeler.
Zack Wheeler is considered by many to be one of the top pitching prospects not just for the Mets, but in all of baseball, ranking 8th in Baseball America's top 100 Prospects list. It is only a matter of time before he sees major league action.
Best Case Scenario
Wheeler dominates AAA Las Vegas and is called up as soon as possibly allowed and shows exactly why the Mets invested much of their future on him, providing a dominant 1-2 combo with Harvey that hasn't been seen since the days of Seaver and Koosman.
Worst Case Scenario
Wheeler struggles with his command while in Vegas and makes many question whether or not he is ready for the major league level and if he is the real deal
My Prediction
Wheeler arrives sometime in mid-June. While not initially setting the world on fire, Wheeler gets better with every start and soon begins to dominate hitters in the National League.
BENCH
The bench this season, despite the loss odd Scott Hairston to the Cubs, should be improved from last season. With the likes of Kirk Neiuwenhuis, Mike Baxter, Jordany Valdespin, Anthony Recker, and Justin Turner, it should prove a valuable asset if it is not overly taxed.
*NOTE*
I am not making predictions on the bullpen because their success varies from season to season.
OVERALL PREDICTION
I had thought this last year that I believed that the team would do better than expected and that was partially correct as they were in contention for the division title for the first half of the season. This year I believe the same thing. The Phillies appear to be ripe for the picking and the Marlins have completed their third fire-sale leaving them barren. Look for the youth movement to start this coming season with the debuts of Wheeler and d'Arnaud (and if we're incredibly fortunate Raphael Montero as well).
FINAL RECORD:
80-82, no playoffs, 3rd in the NL East.
Labels:
2013 Mets,
Season Preview